Today, September 2, at The Times Center in New York City, the Ascendant Network is running SHOWCASE — the world's first retail + commerce media upfront event. Agency holding companies (Publicis, Dentsu, WPP, Omnicom, IPG) and independent shops including PMG and Tinuiti are in the room, alongside retail and commerce media networks representing over $1 trillion in annual retail sales. 2027 planning cycles begin immediately after SHOWCASE. That means they're beginning today.
This is what happens when a channel matures. Retail media has moved from a rounding error in paid media budgets to a $200+ billion global category. When channels reach that scale, they develop their own planning infrastructure. Retail media just got theirs.
The market being planned around
According to WARC's Future of Commerce Media 2026 report, global retail media investment reached $200.4 billion in 2026, on track for $223.4 billion in 2027. In the US alone, eMarketer puts 2026 retail media spend at $71.09 billion — up 17.8% year over year.
The distribution of that spend is not subtle, per eMarketer. Amazon holds roughly 78% of US retail media revenue. Walmart Connect holds approximately 7.5%. The remaining 200+ retail media networks split 14.5%.
Per eMarketer data, 89% of incremental US retail media dollars added this year flow to just Amazon and Walmart. If you're increasing your retail media budget, you are mostly increasing your Amazon and Walmart budgets. For DTC brands that don't sell through either platform, "investing in retail media" is a harder strategic problem than most planning discussions acknowledge.
What the upfront model actually changes
The upfront format exists because TV networks worked out that brands will commit dollars months ahead if the inventory is exclusive and timing-sensitive. Now retail media networks are applying the same model — for good reason. Premium inventory is finite. Top-of-search placements during peak periods, guaranteed category positions, and Prime Video ad slots have real capacity limits.
Brands that commit early negotiate rates and lock in positions. Brands planning month to month pay market rates for whatever is left.
This dynamic has existed on Amazon for years but been informal — an account rep calling in Q4 to discuss a committed-spend program for the year ahead. SHOWCASE formalizes that process across the broader retail media ecosystem. Retailers are presenting annual roadmaps. Brands are making commitments today that will shape what inventory is available, and at what price, for the rest of 2027.
For DTC brands not represented by a major holding company, the practical implication is access. The brands in the room today are taking positions before smaller players can. That's not a catastrophe, but it's a reason to have a documented retail media strategy before your category's planning window closes.
The non-Amazon problem
Three-quarters of US advertisers plan to increase retail media budgets in 2026, per eMarketer. That's a broad consensus. But if your products don't have meaningful distribution on Amazon or Walmart, "increasing retail media" requires a different plan.
The 14.5% of US retail media outside Amazon and Walmart is still more than $10 billion. Instacart Ads, Kroger Precision Marketing, Albertsons Media Collective, and Target Roundel compete in that space — and they're actively making pitches at SHOWCASE to convince brands to commit before the season. These networks have more flexible entry points. Minimum commitments are lower. Category-specific targeting is often tighter because the shopper intent is more defined.
The challenge is measurement. Attribution across non-Amazon retail media networks is still more inconsistent than it should be. That's a real friction point — but it's also an argument for starting small before rates move and inventory gets picked over.
Four things to do before Q4
If you sell on Amazon, pull your trailing 12-month retail media spend by campaign type. Most DTC brands are overweighted on Sponsored Products and underusing Sponsored Brands and Sponsored Display, which run at lower CPMs outside peak periods. The imbalance matters heading into a Q4 where auction pressure will be high across all formats.
If you sell through retailers with their own media networks — Kroger, Target, Walmart, Instacart — get a contact at that network before October. Even one meeting gives you visibility into what's available before it's gone.
Write down your 2027 retail media strategy. Not a slide deck — a three-paragraph summary of where you plan to spend, why, and what success looks like. If you can't write it, you don't have one.
And if you're evaluating whether your current paid media infrastructure is ready for a more complex multi-network retail media operation, the free account audit at gromerce.com/audit will surface where signal gaps or attribution problems will compound before you scale.
Growth in retail media spend is real. Concentration around Amazon and Walmart is equally real. The brands that do well in 2027 won't be the ones that discover the channel — they'll be the ones who had a plan when the planning window was still open.
Sources: WARC Future of Commerce Media 2026, eMarketer US Retail Media Advertising 2026, September 2026
